We offer new evidence on earnings volatility of men and women in the United States over the past four decades by using matched data from the March Current Population Survey. We construct a measure of total volatility that encompasses both permanent and transitory instability, and that admits employment transitions and losses from self employment. We also present a detailed decomposition of earnings volatility to account for changing shares in employment probabilities, conditional variances of continuous workers, and conditional mean variances from labor-force entry and exit. Our results show that earnings volatility among men increased by 15 percent from the early 1970s to mid 1980s, while women’s volatility fell, and each stabilized thereafter. However, this pooled series masks important heterogeneity in volatility levels and trends across education groups and marital status. We find that men’s earnings volatility is increasingly accounted for by employment transitions, especially exits, while the share of women’s volatility accounted for by continuous workers rose, each of which highlights the importance of allowing for periods of non-work in volatility studies.
Inequality
Understanding trends of rising inequality in the United States remains at the fore of both policy and research. As the figure makes clear, redistributive tax and transfer programs attenuate the level of inequality for families living in both urban and rural areas, but as recent evidence in Ziliak (DP2018-06) demonstrates, the U.S. social safety net and tax system levels out inequality more for households in rural communities than urban.
2011
If you don't build it: Mexican mobility following the U.S. housing bust
This paper demonstrates the importance of earnings-sensitive migration in response to local variation in labor demand. We use geographic variation in the depth of the housing bust to examine its effects on the migration of natives and Mexican-born individuals in the U.S. We find a strong effect of the housing bust on the location choices of Mexicans, with movement of Mexican population away from U.S. states facing the largest declines in construction and movement toward U.S. states facing smaller declines. This effect operated primarily through interstate migration of Mexicans previously residing in the U.S. and, to a lesser extent, through slower immigration rates from Mexico in states with larger housing declines. There is no evidence that return migration to Mexico played an important role in immigrants' migration response. We also find no impact of the housing bust on natives' location choices. We interpret these results as the causal impact of the housing bust on migration after confirming that they are robust to controls for immigrant diffusion and a pre-housing-bust false experiment.
2010
An exploratory analysis of the relationship between student earnings and postsecondary retention
Policy makers are becoming increasingly concerned about the high percentage of students who attend postsecondary education without completing a degree. Researchers have studied numerous potential determinants of retention behavior for postsecondary students, such as financial aid, socioeconomic status, academic preparedness, academic and social integration, and expected future wages. However, none of these studies considers students’ earnings while in school as a potential determinant of retention. Using an administrative data from postsecondary institutions matched with administrative earnings data from the state’s unemployment insurance department, our results indicate that student earnings are negatively correlated to student retention in Kentucky postsecondary institutions. Our preferred model, hazard, indicates that a percentage increase in earnings reduces time to stopout with a probability of 1.767%. Even after controlling for student intentions, students are more likely to stopout at the rate of 1.050%. Ability as measured by first-term GPA in KCTCS and credits earned in the first semester positively affects retention.
State unemployment protection statutes for victims of domestic violence as an employment matter
Evidence indicates that domestic violence has negative consequences on victims’ employment; yet employers lag in recognizing this as a workplace issue. To address the problem, some states have established several policy solutions. To understand the scope of the public sector’s response to domestic violence as a workplace issue, a content analysis of state-level employment protection policies for domestic violence victims (N=369) was conducted. Results indicate three broad policy categories: 1) policies that offer work leave for victims; 2) policies that aim to reduce employment discrimination of domestic violence victims; and 3) policies that aim to increase awareness and safety in the workplace. Sub-categories emerged within each of these three categories. Implementation of employment protection policies varies significantly across states. Implications for workplaces, practitioners and policy leaders are discussed.
Imprisonment and (inequality in) population health
This article extends research on the consequences of mass imprisonment and the factors shaping population health and health inequities by considering the effects of the imprisonment rate on population health and black-white inequality in population health using state-level panel data from the United States (1980-2004). My results imply that increases in the imprisonment rate harm population health, though the effects on the infant mortality rate and female life expectancy are more consistent than are the effects on male life expectancy. My results also imply that these health effects are concentrated among blacks, implicating mass imprisonment in the persistence of black-white inequities in population health. The effects, moreover, are substantial. According to my estimates, if the American imprisonment rate had remained at its 1980 level, black life expectancy at birth would have been 0.8 years longer in 2004, and black-white inequality in the infant mortality rate would have been 23 percent smaller. My results also indicate, however, that increases in the imprisonment rate are associated with decreases in the mortality rates of young black men. Although imprisonment’s long-term effects on health and health inequities are mostly negative, imprisonment may, in the short-run, have some health benefits for young black men.
Household living arrangements and economic resources among Mexican immigrant families with children
Using data from the 2000 Census, this study examines the relationship between household living arrangements and economic resources among Mexican immigrant families with children. I model separately the relationships between family income and household structure and proportion of total household income contributed and household structure. The results show that families that coreside with extended kin and non-kin have higher incomes, all else equal, relative to those that reside in single-family households. In addition, Mexican immigrant families that reside in extendedhousehold living arrangements contribute about three quarters of total household income. While families may gain some economic efficiency through extended household living arrangements, the results are consistent with expectations that Mexican immigrant families expend scarce resources in support of the migration and settlement of extended kin. The Mexican delayed assimilation thesis suggests such support inadvertently diverts resources away from immigrant children and slows intergenerational progress.
Does race-based redistricting matter for policy?
During the 1990 congressional redistricting many states were mandated to create additional majority minority-resident districts in order to elect more minorities to Congress. Civil rights groups and Republicans cheered. The Party views Democratic districts stripped of Black voters as opportunities to repaint blue districts red. The academic literature agrees, attributing the Republican return to House control in 1994 to race based redistricting. However, this literature generally focuses on the district as the unit of analysis, a focus that is too narrow, as some districts gain Black residents while others lose them. I focus on states, the level at which redistricting occurs. By comparing congressional delegations of states under greater pressure to create majority minority districts with those under less pressure in a difference-in-difference framework, I find no evidence that the creation of majority minority districts leads to more conservative House delegations. In fact point estimates indicate that states that increased their share of majority Black districts saw their delegations grow increasingly liberal. I find similar results for Latino districts in the southwest. Thus I find no evidence of the alleged tradeoff between having minority representatives and representatives who support minorities’ preferred policies.
Poverty, inequality, and cost of living differences
Because of their different geographical distribution, US households are exposed to different levels and trends in cost of living. One contribution of this paper is to document that, as a consequence, the conditional difference between the wage of skilled workers and of unskilled workers is significantly lower in real terms than in nominal terms and has grown less. In 2000, the level of the college premium is 60% in nominal terms and only 51% in real terms. More importantly, the increase in the college premium between 1980 and 2000 in real terms is significantly smaller than the increase in nominal terms. Specifically, at least 22% of the documented increase in the college premium between 1980 and 2000 is accounted for by differences in the cost of living.
The labor market returns to community college degrees, diplomas, and certificates
This paper provides the first detailed empirical evidence of the labor-market returns to community college diplomas and certificates. Using detailed administrative data from Kentucky, we estimate panel-data models that control for differences among students in pre-college earnings and educational aspirations. Associate’s degrees and diplomas have quarterly earnings returns of nearly $2,000 for women, compared to returns of approximately $1,500 for men. Certificates have small positive returns for men and women in most specifications. There is substantial heterogeneity in returns across fields of study. Degrees, diplomas, and certificates all correspond with higher levels of employment.
2009
Inequality and human capital in Appalachia: 1960-2000
This paper examines changes in the earnings distribution of men age 25-64 between 1960 and 2000 in Appalachia and in the remainder of the U.S. Because Appalachia is more rural than the remainder of the U.S. we also examine changes in the earnings distribution in rural vs. urban areas. Our central finding is that there have been large differences in the evolution of the earnings distribution in rural vs. urban areas and this is the principal reason that Appalachia’s earnings distribution differs to some degree from the remainder of the U.S. We find that the bottom of the earnings distribution increased in rural counties between 1960 and 1980 while there was a small decrease in the bottom of the earnings distribution in urban areas. Between 1980 and 2000, urban areas exhibited far more bifurcation of earnings than rural areas. The level and the return to education may play an important role in understanding these patterns. At the bottom of the distribution there was a large increase in education in rural areas relative to urban areas between 1980 and 2000. The relative rise at the top of the earnings distribution in cities is likely caused by men in the upper part of the earnings distribution being much more likely to have a college degree combined with a rapid rise in the return to college education.